Holy crap. I just found this again three years later. Not that ANYONE ever comes to this abandoned dusty space on the web any more, but in case you stumbled here and were actually looking for content, you might want to check out the new Hartog's Den, over at www.hartogsden.com.
Why is the weatherman wrong so often? Well the primary reason is their predictive models can not be 100% certain. So why aren’t these models 100% certain? Understanding that question then leads to me asking, how can we make the certainty in our predictions closer to 100%?
I remember talking to a weather briefer once before going out on a flight and asked what the weather was going to be like over the weekend (5 days away) and he replied to me saying that he could give me a prediction but that there is only maybe a 60% chance of being correct. Historically records show 50% of the days in the given month it is cloudy and 50% sunny. This means his model gives a +10% over the historical trends at 5 days out. How can this be so bad?
The butterfly effect comes to mind when thinking about modeling the climate, can we only incorporate so much into the model, however a butterfly flapping its wing in
So what am I getting at with this… Why are we doing modeling this way? Why don’t we look at the deep physics governing the climate? Break the entire atmosphere over the earth into differential elements and see how they all interact with each other. I don’t care about historical data, I want to know the physics that cause the storm that is created when a cold front and warm front hit.
I know why we don’t have models that do this, computing power and lack of understanding deep enough. I am sure some of the models incorporate the physics but at a much different level that I am suggesting and they still incorporate fudging coefficients so that the model when run with historical data, matches. I’ve always wondered if we had a massive quantum computer that could do the necessary calculation, could we come up with the equations to be able to completely model Earth, are there people out there working on this? Is this how things are done and we just have minimal understanding right now that yields only accurate predictions a few days into the future? I dream of having sensors set up all over, and satellites painting coverage over the entire globe and then model EVERYTHING mathematically. And when I say everything I mean everything ranging from modeling the tectonic plates to predict earthquakes and volcanoes to understanding ocean currents and how melting ice may change them, etc. Could we come up with the equations to model the earth at a level to be able to predict say 20 days into the future, or maybe a year or a decade? Human randomness is a problem, but would this then allow us to know exactly how humans have affected the climate on earth and then run models to figure out how to fix the problem? However if we don’t act now on our current problem we will be in trouble since this model won’t be around for a long time. The IPCC says with 90% certainty humans are causing global warming, we better listen and act now! Idealistically if we can completely model the incredibly complex dynamic system of Earth, could we not then make earth’s climate more stable, the way we want it? This would also have potential for helping us turn other planets into having livable atmospheres. Is this something worth our time on slowly research and progressing forward so that maybe 300 years from now this model will be real.
Reviewed by me on Yelp!.
4/5 Stars.
Category: Indian/Pakistani
Neighborhood: Davis Square
Everton F.C., the original and best team from the Liverpool area (as opposed to those posers, Liverpool F.C.), has a long and illustrious history in English football. Established in 1878, they are one of the oldest association football teams in the history of the sport. They have the distinction of being a founding member of both the Football Association and the English Premier League, and have spent more seasons in the top echelons of soccer than any other FA team. Everton is also one of the few teams that can claim to have been good enough to remain in the Premier League for every single year of the League's existence.
Like any other team, "The Toffees" have their ups and downs over the decades. In the early part of the 00's, Everton was at a major low point, facing the real threat of relagation to the lower divisions for the first time in recent history. A new manager, David Moyes, saved the team from dropping out, and has reversed the downward spiral, vowing a return to glory days - but it has been, and remains, an uphill battle. The heart (and decorum) of the fans, their pride in the team despite the hard times, the frustration of occasional mediocrity in the face of so much proud history, and the ever-present sense that multiple generations of the Everton family are watching and waiting for a return to our rightful place all make Everton an exciting religion.
I first started supporting Everton at their lowest point in recent memory, with no country or family ties to force my decision... I'm a Yank, we're only supposed to like the cliche yuppie commercial empires of Arsenal, Man Utd, and Chelsea! But my love for the rising underdog with a glorious past, the yearning for the lost prince to return and claim his crown at the top of the League, has turned me into a blue-blooded Evertonian. As the crest proclaims: "Nil Satis Nisi Optimum"... nothing short of the best will suffice (even though they suck at the moment)!
I began my foray into the wonderful world of photography with a piece of crap, 2-megapixel, point-and-shoot Fujifilm digital camera. Like most point-and-shoot photographers, I mostly used it for documenting; that is, taking photos that really have no artistic value, but serve rather simply to record who was doing what where, when, and with whom.
After about a year and half of random snapshots, I started to realize that certain ways of putting together an image somehow looked better than others. This was long before I knew the word composition applied to anything beyond music and poetry, but it was readily apparent that things like off-centering the main subject, paying attention to framing, not trusting the in-camera light-meter all of the time, and catching people naturally rather than posed just somehow resulted in more appealing images. And I noticed that my subjects of preference drifted away from documentation, and approached experimentation.
About last November, almost a a year ago now, I discovered the Single Lens Reflex, or SLR, camera. Unlike a point-and-shoot, an SLR has one lens for both viewing and capturing the image; so the composition you see in the viewfinder is exactly what you are going to get on the final product. With a P&S, you can never be sure, especially at close range, that parallax error isn’t going to cut off something you wanted to include, or the opposite. The other major advantage of the SLR over the point-and-shoot is the fact that the default lens can be removed swapped for any number of others sold for that camera’s mount system; this opens up a huge array of new possibilities in compositional options.
I had to have one. After some research, in January I purchased my new toy: the Canon Digital Rebel XTi, with the kit lens and an additional Sigma telephoto zoom. In leiu of a photography class, I chose the standard engineer’s approach: screw the manual, let’s experiment. (I should note that this is more generally the Man’s Method, though those who aren’t engineers tend to fare much more poorly choosing this route… most insist on using it anyway).
The beauty of digital is that an exposure is both instantaneous and free. Thanks to this fantastic feature, I was able to set the dial to ‘M’ and systematically ruin what must have been 1000 photographs straight. But it wasn’t all wasted – far from it. By experimenting repeatedly with aperture, shutter speed, ISO, focus, angle, lighting, shadow, and the semi-infinite set of ways these elements can combine, I learned much about the art known as photography. Far from expert however, I posted images on sites such as the Canon Digital Photography Forum, and JPG Magazine for feedback. The critique I received was instrumental in taking my photography forward.
In July, on a hiking and photography expedition with some work colleagues, tragedy struck… struck my equipment anyway. In reaching for the prefect shot of King’s Canyon opening up downstream of Mist Falls, I slipped, and list about 40 feet of altitude in a matter of a couple of seconds on the wildest waterslide ride of my life. Crashing into one of the many rock pools in the intertwining cascade, I threw my weight left to avoid a several-hundred-foot vertical drop and slammed into a boulder, hanging on tightly. I was fine, nothing broken, and could keep my head up quite easily; yet with a leg trapped in a crevice and not enough strength to pull it out against the current, I was definitely stuck. Thanks to a hiking partner who saw where I dropped and dashed madly over rocks to get there (expecting to have to catch me), I was able to get a push, against the water pressure, pull my leg free, and scramble up to safety with no permanent injury.
The camera, unfortunately, was not so robust. I had managed to keep it from getting bashed against anything, but complete submergence and the forceful current had flooded the body and mounted lens. I searched my warranty card… “Under no circumstances does this warranty cover water damage of any kind.” Damn. I called my favorite camera shop… the guys just laughed. “A word of advice my friend: the only reason to pick up a digital camera from the water is if you want to throw it further in.” Great. A $1200 loss, and I have to start over. Oh well, at least I didn’t die or something equally inconvenient.
Obviously, I could have just replaced the XTi; this was my first instinct. Then I thought, hey, this may be a great opportunity to upgrade! So I looked at better SLRs… that new Sigma with the Foveon Sensor… ooo, or maybe stepping up to the 30D or 5D from Canon? Then a fellow photographer, a long-time film addict, suggested something even more radical… that I should go film. Uh… what? Isn’t that a step backwards? On a whim, I did it… and I haven’t been disappointed.
My adventures in film-land and why I converted to the true faith, on next week’s episode… To be continued!
In the meanwhile, check out my photoblog and decide for yourself.
I have always lived out West, and the bulk of the country east of Denver remains a mystery to me in terms of geography and culture. My view of Kentucky in particular was not a kind one, and I realize now that it was far from correct: I envisioned a barren, flat wasteland populated by toothless hillbillies who farmed the dusty land and married their cousins. Silly me, I know now that this description actually applies to Oklahoma and Tennessee (just kidding). Of course, I was quite certain that this view couldn’t be too far off, despite the fact that I didn’t even know that Kentucky bordered Ohio until I arrived there.
So when business called me to Cincinnati (another place I had never been), and I heard that I would be staying across the river in someplace across the river called Covington, Kentucky, well… to say the least I wasn’t expecting much. But despite harsh preconceptions, I have emerged from the bluegrass state pleasantly surprised. I was impressed at the urbane riverfront nightlife, the variety of ethnic food, the street cafes and bistros, the small live jazz and blues clubs, and friendly openness of a people I once was convinced were narrow-minded and backward.
So allow me to let you in on one of America’s seldom-explored destinations. For an inexpensive and fun-filled getaway, try (of all places) Northern Kentucky.
For one, it is beautiful country; deciduous forest grows thick and lush on endless green rolling hills, and the Ohio River (which, ironically, is owned by Kentucky) cuts a blue swath through some of the prettiest hills. I would very much like to come back for all the seasons, particularly autumn; I suspect that the photographer in me would revel in the color displays that can be seen here in the fall.
For the evenings during the earlier part of the week I was mainly looking for places to hang out in Cincinnati, on the Ohio side of the river. While the Queen City was certainly much better than I expected (again, that isn’t saying much), I hesitate to say that I was delighted. The James and I did manage to find a fairly good middle eastern restaurant at 6th and Vine that served hookah (see my earlier post on the subject), but besides that I can’t say that there was all that much. I think I would have preferred my much smaller hometown of Boise, Idaho for quality hangouts. I do concede that I had a very limited time to explore the area, and had not been advised by any locals on the subject of fun things to do; that said however, Cincinnati still has some convincing to do before I think of it as a fun place to go.
That Wednesday however was my birthday, and with The James’ departure that afternoon to head back to Arizona, I had resigned myself to spending my joyeux anniversaire far from home, family, and friends. On a whim, I decided to explore the Kentucky side of the river. My secondary camera, an old Pentax ME Super, was strapped around my shoulder, on the off chance that something interesting could possibly be found in a dull place like Kentucky. It turns out that I seriously underestimated the photo opportunities; my two remaining rolls of film rapidly disappeared over the next few days, and I found myself wishing for more.
On Covington’s simultaneously quaint and hip Main St., I ran across a sign for live jazz on the rooftop of Chez Nora, a small restaurant and live music bar. Curious, I stepped in... I didn't step out until last call. Jazz singer Beckah Williams was singing that night, and boy, for a short blonde she could belt it. I was just sitting in the corner, finishing up my crawfish étouflée and enjoying the music, when the bartender walked up with a fresh pint.
"Thanks," I said. "But I don't remember ordering this."
"The lady third from the left bought you this drink sir."
Huh? Glancing over towards the bar, I noticed three fairly good-looking, middle-aged women smoking and chatting with the other bartender. Shrugging, I grabbed the pint and wandered over.
And that's how I met the self-proclaimed "Covington Barflies," who spent the next three days showing me all over the Kentucky side of the river, mainly in Covington and the hip "Levee" riverfront district of Newport. I can't even remember the total count of beers, shots, jazz musicians, banjo players, marlboro smoking over makeup-ed bartendresses ("you from around here, sugar?"), and lovely photos over the river occured in those days.
The highlight of the trip was by far the bluegrass bar I went to on the last night. Walking in wearing khakis and a polo only intensified how out-of-place I was in a bar full of either white or black folks, guys in tight jeans and tucked in flannel shirts, gals in pretty dresses... very pretty. (And by the way, for the record, the southern accent is so hot it's not even fair.) The momentary awkwardness was totally worth it though... I ended up joking with the band and learning (vaguely) how to dance, their style. I'd recommend the band highly by the way, The 23 String Band, out of Cumberland Valley, KY.
So all in all, I had a raucous good time with some very friendly people. Though I stuck out like a sore thumb and got some interesting looks (what's this yuppie South Asian kid doin here with a goddamn camera?), people were on the whole very welcoming and eager to have a good time. The scenery was beautiful (especially the old churches in central Covington), the curries were delicious, the hookah flavors were varied, the cajun cooking nearly blew my mouth off, and the jazz was even hotter. Don't believe me? Try it yourself. Oh yeah, and call me up when you're going, I can pack quickly.
More photos from my adventures can always be found at Adventures of a Quantum Cowboy.
